a friendly reminder: Hillary can’t win

by twit

from Newsweek and the department of ‘math is tough,’ with emphasis added:

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There’s only one problem with this analysis: they can’t count.

https://i0.wp.com/images.starpulse.com/Photos/Previews/Wizard-of-Oz-w24.jpg

I’m no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I’ve scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don’t look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she’s in, I’ve given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

… So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

Newsweek has a little more to add:

Clinton’s only chance rests with winning over party elders, and the 794 superdelegates who are free to vote for whomever they choose regardless of the primary or caucus results in their own state.

oh, and one more thing:

Democratic officials involved in the conversations said Obama was lining up a package of superdelegates — the party insiders whose votes help select the Democratic nominee — with plans to announce their support as a bloc.

UPDATE!

From the Associated Press via My Way News:

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) – Hillary Rodham Clinton finally had a confetti night. The Democratic presidential hopeful claimed victory in the Ohio primary Tuesday night and said that means, “We’re going strong and we’re going all the way.”

and Karl Rove is laughing a good maniacal laugh right about now.

UPDATE!

From ABC News:

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024.

… So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination.

From the New York Times:

But for all the millions of votes Mrs. Clinton has now won, simple math is still her enemy.

From the Associated Press via Yahoo News:

It doesn’t get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota — scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?

She still trails Obama.

Her only hope is that a solid majority of the nearly 800 superdelegates support her over Obama. Party rules allow them to act independently, but it’s almost unfathomable that these political animals would not ratify the results from primaries and caucuses.

UPDATE!

The New York Times notes that it is going to take a lot more than math to stop the Clinton campaign, so as lestro’s recent post points out, and with many thanks to Yes We Can Has for giving the twit a dramatic illustration of her general reaction to the stunning chasm between reality and the Clinton campaign:

https://i2.wp.com/yeswecanhas.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/cantwait.jpg

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One Response to a friendly reminder: Hillary can’t win

  1. matt says:

    I’ve been looking at the same thing… the math is not hard, Hillary can’t win.

    I’ve been keeping tabs of the delegate count on RealClearPolitics..
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

    Texas still seems to be in the process of doling out delegates.. currently the count is tied at 92. There are 9 more to go.. The big win in Ohio closed the gap by 9. Current lead for BO in pledge delegates is 150. Add penn/flor/mich and you’re still not close.

    The democrat party has one one goal at the end of the day: Don’t lose in November. This would be difficult following W, but possible. How do the dems lose:
    1) Fight it out all the way to the convention
    2) Have the nominee chosen by the electorate lose the the spot to a candidate selected by party insiders.

    The party is not going to let either of these happen.

    If you track SD count over the last 3 weeks or so, you’ll see that BO has added 42… HC is up 3 during the same time.
    Again, according to RCP.

    Note that BO added 2 SD’s today, March 7.

    Hillary has lost. The number don’t lie. Party insiders are now pushing her towards the exit door.

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